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 information usage


How much does your data exploration overfit? Controlling bias via information usage

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Modern data is messy and high-dimensional, and it is often not clear a priori what are the right questions to ask. Instead, the analyst typically needs to use the data to search for interesting analyses to perform and hypotheses to test. This is an adaptive process, where the choice of analysis to be performed next depends on the results of the previous analyses on the same data. Ultimately, which results are reported can be heavily influenced by the data. It is widely recognized that this process, even if well-intentioned, can lead to biases and false discoveries, contributing to the crisis of reproducibility in science. But while %the adaptive nature of exploration any data-exploration renders standard statistical theory invalid, experience suggests that different types of exploratory analysis can lead to disparate levels of bias, and the degree of bias also depends on the particulars of the data set. In this paper, we propose a general information usage framework to quantify and provably bound the bias and other error metrics of an arbitrary exploratory analysis. We prove that our mutual information based bound is tight in natural settings, and then use it to give rigorous insights into when commonly used procedures do or do not lead to substantially biased estimation. Through the lens of information usage, we analyze the bias of specific exploration procedures such as filtering, rank selection and clustering. Our general framework also naturally motivates randomization techniques that provably reduces exploration bias while preserving the utility of the data analysis. We discuss the connections between our approach and related ideas from differential privacy and blinded data analysis, and supplement our results with illustrative simulations.


A Rich Context Model for Knowledge-Works

AAAI Conferences

Lack of context in information is a serious problem for knowledge-workers. Effective utilization of computational aids for supporting knowledge-workers require a rich understanding of the nature of context of information and related knowledge-works. It also needs specifications about how such understanding can be leveraged in computer-based systems. In this paper we propose a holistic model of context of knowledge-works and information created in course of their performances. We also demonstrate with an example how such a model can be used as basis for developing a formal, machine-deployable specification of activity context.